June 2010
77 posts
Fed's Lockhart Says U.S. Economic Recovery Not Yet...
Bloomberg: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said the U.S. economic recovery isn’t sustainable enough yet to warrant raising interest rates or shrinking the central bank’s near-record balance sheet. There’s a “small risk of deflation,” and the rebound from the worst recession since the 1930s faces risks from Europe’s debt crisis, drops in state and local spending,...
Why Should We Trust the IMF?
Dean Baker: Is advice from the IMF better than advice from a drunk in the street? That is the question that people around the world should be asking as the International Monetary Fund dishes out its prescription for austerity. The IMF programme calls for cutbacks in government support for healthcare, pensions, and a wide range of other public services. It also calls for weakening labour market...
Chinese pay rises encourage move to cheaper...
Financial Times: Foxconn’s shock announcement this month that it would double base pay for some of its workers may not hurt consumers but it is likely to lead to a fresh round of labour relocation within China. “We frequently have double-digit percentage swings in the price of D-Ram [chips] or [LCD] panels, and those are the ones that matter,” says Kevin Chang, ac Citigroup...
Austerity measures trigger doubts on recovery
Financial Times: Growing doubts about the strength of the global recovery provided the dominant theme in financial markets this week as a burst of euphoria over China’s decision to allow more flexibility for the renminbi proved short-lived. Analysts reported mounting concerns that fiscal austerity measures being adopted in Europe could trigger a return to recession for some countries and weigh...
Hayek and Methodological Individualism
Standford Encyclopedia of Philosophy: One of the earliest iterations of this debate occurred during the so-called Methodenstreit between members of the Austrian School in Economics and the German Historical School. Most theorists of the Austrian School, however, like Carl Menger and Ludwig von Mises, were pure atomists. It was only Friedrich von Hayek who explicitly identified himself with the...
Math Question: jobs jobs job...
So I can’t tell you how many people I have spoken with recently who say the government should be more proactive in job creation through jobs programs like FDR put in place during the great depression. But you also ask these same people if the government should increase spending and they tell you no. How are you going to create and implement a jobs program without money? I’m...
Rally 'Round the "True Constitution"
The American Prospect: Indeed, while “birther” conspiracy theorists dominate the airwaves with tales of a mystical Kenyan baby smuggled into Hawaii just days after his birth, these “tenther” constitutionalists offer a theory that is no less radical but infinitely more dangerous. Tentherism, in a nutshell, proclaims that New Deal-era reformers led an unlawful coup against...
States’ Budget Woes Only A ‘Modest’ Drag, San...
Real Time Economics - WSJ Financial problems at the state level are unlikely to send the U.S. economy back into recession, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said Monday. “State fiscal crises aren’t likely to go away soon and will probably get worse before they get better,” bank economists Jeremy Gerst and Daniel Wilson wrote in the release. “Painful budgetary choices lie...
Two-Year Treasury Yield Declines to Record Low...
Bloomberg: Treasuries advanced, pushing two- year yields to a record low and that on the 10-year security below 3 percent for the first time since April 2009, as a decline in stocks boosted demand for the safest assets. Government securities headed for their best quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as European governments’ struggles to rein in debt increased demand for the relative safety...
`Deep-Cover' Russian Spies Worked in U.S., FBI...
Bloomberg: Ten alleged members of a “long- term, deep-cover” Russian spy ring whose ultimate goal was to infiltrate U.S. policy-making circles have been arrested, the Justice Department said. The arrests in the New York area and in Boston and Arlington, Virginia, were the result of an investigation by U.S. authorities into the ring, which began operating in the 1990s, according to two criminal...
Byrd's Death, Republican Fee Concerns Complicate...
Bloomberg: The death yesterday of West Virginia Democratic Senator Robert Byrd, and Wisconsin Democrat Russell Feingold’s refusal to back the final package, underscored the need for some Republican support to obtain 60 votes necessary to proceed to final Senate action on the financial-regulatory bill approved June 25 by a House-Senate committee. Byrd’s absence and possible opposition from...
In Ireland, a Picture of the Cost of Austerity
NYT: As Europe’s major economies focus on belt-tightening, they are following the path of Ireland. But the once thriving nation is struggling, with no sign of a rapid turnaround in sight. Nearly two years ago, an economic collapse forced Ireland to cut public spending and raise taxes, the type of austerity measures that financial markets are now pressing on most advanced industrial nations. ...
Deficit reduction is not the enemy of jobs
Jared Bernstein in the Financial Times: When the economy gets back up to speed, the key to debt reduction in the US will once again be paying for federal spending in real-time, and dealing with rising health costs. That is why our recent health care reforms target unsustainable health costs, and old “PAYGO” rules that require Congress to pay for new entitlement spending or tax cuts in normal...
Hayek on Democratic Socialism
“It is now even widely recognized that democratic socialism is a very precarious and unstable affair, ridden with internal contradictions and everywhere producing results most distasteful to many of its advoates.” —Friedrich A. Hayek...
A public apology
A public apology 6.28.2010 I would just like to take a moment to publicly apologize to every single politician I have ever given an earful too—in person, via email, or just randomly out loud into the netherworld; for failing to attend an event, respond to an email, or any of the other random minutia I “expected” of you. Your ability to navigate—in a responsive,...
Boston Tea Party --- "the first instance of...
Dumb Agent: It is an understatement to say that the late 1700’s were a turbulent time in American History. The colonists were fed up with being considered second class citizens and more and more of them were eager to rid themselves of the ‘tyrannical yoke’. The British Crown, in the meantime, saw them as restless rabble-rousers who needed to be clamped down upon. While all of this is true,...
The decline of intellectual honesty and the...
Kevin Drum does a good rundown on the “Party of No” NEGOTIATING WITH THOSE WHO OPPOSE THEIR OWN PRINCIPLES…. This week, a couple of key Senate Republicans said they would never agree to any compromise on energy policy if it included a cap-and-trade provision. If a proposal puts a cap on carbon emissions, and applies that cap to anyone or anything, anywhere, even a little,...
Cap and Trade $3,100 fiction
I’ve been shocked at the number of politicians running for office who have used this line about cap and trade during their stump speeches or responses. Go read Factcheck.org if you want the down low on the bogus claims by Republicans. Cap-and-Trade Cost Inflation: Leading Republicans are claiming that President Obama’s proposal to curb greenhouse gas emissions would cost households...
Stand up for our kids this November!
Failure to run a sustainable budget means we are threatening to steal the American dream from the next generation. We were handed so many gifts its time to get our act together and fully fund our educational system… Help me get on the ballot this November by sending a small contribution online to www.JimN2010.com Posted via email from Jim Nichols for Senate Blog | Comment » ...
Instant Runoff Voting
Posted via email from Jim Nichols for Senate Blog | Comment »
Thanks to all who could make it out last night!
I want to thank everyone who was able to make it out last night! Your kind words, your commitments to volunteer during the last leg of this campaign, and your financial contributions to help get our message out to voters is truly appreciated! If you were not able to attend but would still like to support the campaign you can contribute online at Jim Nichols for Senate. If you would like to...
A Stronger Yuan Could Increase Commodity Metal...
TheStreet: China’s yuan reform suggests firmer prices for base metals , which have suffered price depreciation from expected weaker demand and excess inventory. Aluminum may recover some of the 20 percent price loss in the past three months due to production cuts, and gains are also expected in copper, while prices for nickel and zinc should trade sideways in the coming week. China’s...
Estimate of June Decennial Census impact on...
Calculated Risk: The Census Bureau released the weekly payroll data for the week ending June 12th this morning (ht Bob_in_MA). If we subtract the number of temporary 2010 Census workers in the week containing the 12th of the month, from the same week for the previous month - this provides a close estimate for the impact of the Census hiring on payroll employment. The Census Bureau releases the...
Reception supporting Jim Nichols for State Senate
For any of my readers in Atlanta. I’m having a reception tonight at Manuels Tavern to celebrate my GA AFL-CIO endorsement. Date: Wednesday, June 23, 2010Time: 5:30pm - 7:00pmLocation: Manuels Tavern Main Event RoomStreet: 602 N Highland AveCity/Town: Atlanta, GA Pop by for a bit if you can. If anyone would like to support the campaign but isn’t a local you can go...
Reception supporting Jim Nichols for State Senate
For any of my readers in Atlanta. I’m having a reception tonight at Manuels Tavern to celebrate my GA AFL-CIO endorsement. Date: Wednesday, June 23, 2010Time: 5:30pm - 7:00pmLocation: Manuels Tavern Main Event RoomStreet: 602 N Highland AveCity/Town: Atlanta, GA Pop by for a bit if you can. If anyone would like to support the campaign but isn’t a local you can go...
Alan Greenspan v. Paul Krugman
Paul Krugman: The key point is that while the advocates of austerity pose as hardheaded realists, doing what has to be done, they can’t and won’t justify their stance with actual numbers — because the numbers do not, in fact, support their position. Nor can they claim that markets are demanding austerity. On the contrary, the German government remains able to borrow at rock-bottom interest...
The Undeserving Unemployed
Nancy Folbre is an economics professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst Maybe they don’t deserve assistance. Or maybe they don’t deserve unemployment. Attitudes toward the approximately 10 percent of our labor force that is actively seeking work and not finding it have become a defining feature of our political landscape. Fierce and intensely partisan disagreements over the extension...
China--window dressing a flexible yuan
Mark Thoma on China’s announcement that it intends to increase the RMB exchange rate flexibility …today’s market response to the Chinese announcement suggests that this is a considerably less dramatic event than the press would like you to believe. Of course, the press is being spoon-fed the news by Washington. From the Wall Street Journal: President Barack Obama, badly in...
Change in Unemployment Rate in Countries With and...
via CEPR: Data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development show how work-sharing has kept the unemployment rate in participating countries, such as Germany, low even though some of those countries have a seen a sharper decline in GDP compared with the United States. Posted via email from Jim Nichols | Comment »
Did China Make a Mistake Putting Unemployed...
Dean Baker: The Post apparently thinks so. It told readers that a year and a half after China initiated a massive infrastructure focused stimulus program that kept its economy growing at near double-digit rates: “many economists and others here are asking pointed questions: Does China really need all this infrastructure? And what’s going to happen when the bills come due?”...
Last week's economic reporting...
Calculated Risk with a summary of last week’s economic data: NAHB Builder Confidence declined sharply in June Click on graph for larger image in new window. This graph shows the builder confidence index from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The housing market index (HMI) was at 17 in June. This was a sharp decline from 22 in May. Note: any number under 50...
The stimulus, animal spirits, and yes State Rep....
“It has been said that man is a rational animal. All my life I have been searching for evidence which could support this.” —Bertrand Russell “Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out...
What Crisis? Euro Zone Adds Estonia
NYT: The funniest thing happened in Europe on Thursday. A new country joined (yes, joined) the euro zone. And the mood here was upbeat, James Kanter writes in The New York Times. With a debt crisis that appears to be spreading from Greece to Spain, membership for the country, Estonia, might seem more curse than blessing. There had been speculation that countries might abandon the single...
Schools Face Test on Budget Math
WSJ: For seventh-grader Kyle Scarpa, budget strains affecting schools across the country are hitting where it hurts. In addition to freezing wages and jettisoning its librarian, the school he attends here in southern New Jersey will cancel his after-school remedial math and literacy classes. His teacher believes the tutoring helped him build confidence and get his average grade up to a C from a...
Republican forced to apologize for BP apology
Texas’ Barton called deal with Obama a ‘shakedown, isn’t alone in GOP WASHINGTON - A Texas Republican’s apology to BP CEO Tony Hayward that the company had to agree to a $20 billion fund for oil spill damage claims nearly cost him a key House committee position on Thursday. Rep. Joe Barton was forced to recant by House minority leaders outraged at the vision of an American...
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to...
Peter Boockvar: Initial Jobless Claims remain disappointingly elevated, totaling 472k on the week, 22k above expectations, up from 460k last week and at a 5 week high. After falling a sharp 234k last week, Continuing Claims rose by 88k, 71k above forecasts. Extended Benefits though fell by a net 169k but without the extension of unemployment insurance from Congress, many are exhausting their...
Federal Reserve disclosure and governance
Statement from Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research on the House-Senate Conference Committee’s latest requirements for Federal Reserve disclosure and governance: “The House-Senate Conference Committee on the financial reform bill has agreed to conditions on disclosure that will be a big step forward towards increasing transparency around the Federal...
I changed races...
One last post in case you haven’t heard but have an rss feed to this blog. I jumped from State House to State Senate. I’m going to leave this blog up for posteritis sake. But go to my Jim Nichols for State Senate website or my Jim Nichols for Senate Blog. 32 days, 22 hours and 4 mins till the polls up on election day! Posted via email from Jim Nichols for GA State...
Perdue names new schools chief
Atlanta Business Chronicle Gov. Sonny Perdue Wednesday appointed veteran Georgia Board of Education member Brad Bryant to take over as state school superintendent next month when Kathy Cox, the current holder of that office, steps down. Bryant announced that he will run for a full four-year term in November as an independent. The period for party qualifying for state offices came and went in...
Georgia’s unemployment rate dips slighlty to 10.2...
The Biz Beat: Georgia’s unemployment rate declined to 10.2 percent in May, from 10.3 percent in April, the state labor department reported Thursday. But the number of long-term unemployed keeps rising. People out of work 27 weeks or longer now make up 47 percent of the state’s jobless, the labor department said. “It’s disturbing that the number of long-term unemployed Georgia workers is...
Unemployment Rate (April) Atlanta and Northeast...
Download now or preview on posterous Atlanta area unemployment rate april.pdf (64 KB) Download now or preview on posterous Northeast GA unemployment rate april.pdf (55 KB) Posted via email from Jim Nichols for Senate Blog | Comment »
"BP is allowed to live while the Gulf dies"
former oil industry employee Glenn Stehle: The outcome of Obama’s meeting with BP was an incredible disappointment. After all the tough talk, the end result is that Obama came away with what the little boy shot at. According to the NY Times, “the oil giant will create a $20 billion fund to pay claims.” But here’s the kicker: the preliminary terms of Obama’s agreement with BP “would give BP...
U.S. Stocks Retreat as Treasuries, Dollar Gain on...
Bloomberg: U.S. stocks fell, Treasuries gained and the dollar strengthened against the euro after reports showed American housing starts declined the most in 14 months and FedEx Corp.’s profit forecast trailed estimates. Oil rose to a six-week high. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.1 percent to 1,114.61 at 4 p.m. in New York as about three stocks slumped for every two that rallied...
Employment and Real GDP, Real GDI
Calculated Risk: Last night I excerpted from a speech by St Louis Fed President James Bullard. I noted that GDI might be more useful in measuring the recovery than GDP (they are conceptually equivalent). As a followup to that post (and also to the previous post with the forecast from UCLA-Anderson’s Ed Learmer), here are two graphs looking at payroll employment vs. the change in real...
"The Economics of Libertarianism"
Mark Thoma: Ed Glaeser: The Economics of Libertarianism, Revealed, by Edward Glaeser, Economix: It is both the best and worst of times for libertarians. On the plus side, real, live politicians who might conceivably get elected call themselves libertarians. On the negative side, true libertarians have lost their ancient luxury of being able to avoid any responsibility for the gaffes and errors...
Incarceration Rates in OECD Countries --Something...
Is it something in the water? Are Americans just more criminally inclined? Or could we have policy problems we’ve ignored over the past few decades? Posted via email from Jim Nichols | Comment »
"Worst-of-both-worlds fiscal policy"
Ezra Klein: The government has about $12 trillion in total debt right now. And that, on its own, is actually okay: It’s the rapid growth of entitlements in the future that poses the real problem. Amid all that, a single-year charge of $100 billion is such a vanishingly small addition to our long-term debt that neither including it nor deleting it is going to have any effect on our fiscal...
"World's largest economies are reluctant to adopt...
Mark Weistbrot in The Guardian; Economic Recovery takes political courage The US and European Union together make up about half of the global economy, and recovery is quite uncertain in both of these big economies. Contrary to a lot of folk wisdom and political posturing, the problem is not irresponsible government spending in either case, but a lack of commitment by the authorities in both...
Debt nonsense from Republicans could kill off...
Obama’s State Aid Proposal in Doubt —WSJ.com : Concern over the nation’s mounting debt could snarl the passage of President Barack Obama’s proposal to provide more aid to state and local governments hit by the economic downturn. Mr. Obama on Saturday sent a letter to lawmakers calling for swift action to help U.S. small businesses and state and local governments...
Kyrgyz Death Toll Rises as Gunmen Target Uzbeks,...
map via WSJ Bloomberg: Kyrgyzstan’s ethnic violence continued today as gangs of gunmen raided Uzbek districts and the death toll mounted, news organizations reported. The Associated Press said there are claims at least 200 Uzbeks have been buried, citing the head of the Uzbek National Center, Jallahitdin Jalilatdinov. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is meeting central Asian officials today...
